H1N1 Virus Series Part One

Communities across the U.S. are preparing for what could be a bad flu season. The new H1N1 virus or swine flu is predicted to spread rapidly. In the first part of our series on swine flu, Michele Skalicky looks at how prepared Springfield and Greene County are to handle large numbers of cases…

The flu is expected to hit the US hard this year. A report, prepared by the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology and released recently by the White House, predicts that a new form of the H1N1 virus could infect as much as half the US population this flu season.The report also predicts 30,000 to 90,000 of those infected will die and calls the swine flu “a serious health threat to the United States.”Dr. Dan Sontheimer, a physician and CoxHealth’s vice-president of medical affairs, says swine flu is a specific type of flu known as H1N1…

"It's a new rearrangement of the flu virus that most likely took place in a pig--that's the place it reorganized itself, and then it's reorganized in such a way that it obviously doesn't limit itself to infecting just swine, it can infect people as well."

Symptoms of the new H1N1 virus are nearly identical to seasonal flu, though there have been some reports of infected people having some gastrointestinal symptoms in the first 24 hours.

The swine flu killed more than 100 people in Mexico earlier this year, which has some people in the US worried as it spreads more rapidly here. But Dr. Sontheimer says it needs to be put into perspective…

"The Mexico situation, there's a reporting problem because there could have been a large number of mildly infected people and then a substantial number died, and if you look at the projections, I think last week the President's Council stating that 'we expect a large burden of infection and up to 90,000 deaths.' And then, if you look at traditional flu every kills about 30,000 people, you would say 'wow, this is a more potent virus,' but actually it's a much weaker virus, it's just that, it's so new and it spreads so easily and people will shed the virus because they've never seen it before, therefore more people get it and thus you see what looks like total number of deaths, but the actual death rate per number of infected people would be lower than traditional flu."

Still, the potentially large number of people who could come down with swine flu has local healthcare officials scrambling to prepare…

"I think it's going to be a tremendous strain on all of our healthcare resources honestly and employers and everybody."

And H1N1 tends to cause more deaths in people under 30 and pregnant women. According to Dr. Sontheimer, in one section of Australia, it was reported that in traditional influenza the average age of death is 83, but with the recent swine flu epidemic there, the mean age of death was 37.Springfield/Greene County Health Department director Kevin Gipson is concerned about the strain the swine flu might have on local hospitals. According to Gipson, in any one day, 80 to 90% of hospital beds here are full…

"Even any little blip of infectious disease that would drive people to the hospitals' emergency rooms and urgent care has a concern regarding capacity. In addition, we have a shortage of primary care physicians throughout the country."

Gipson is hoping that the public will take heed of prevention messages that are being spread throughout the community. The Health Department, along with local healthcare organizations, recently launched a Fight the Flu campaign to stress prevention…to get the word out about things you can do to either help prevent catching the flu and other things you can do to stop from spreading it if you do get it…

"We're trying to work with businesses and organizations to say, 'hey, when you're sick, make sure your employees stay home.'"

A two-part vaccine for the new H1N1 virus is expected to be available sometime in October. Gipson says the challenge is to make sure there are enough people to give the shots. He says they’re working with healthcare providers who see the majority of the targeted groups for the initial vaccines…

"And certainly we're planning with all of our other partners for the possibility of mass vaccination clinics as well, so we've already developed those relationships with providers to do vaccines, so it's just mobilizing them and coming up with a plan on how to best distribute this vaccine when it becomes available."

Gipson says school-located vaccinations are a possibility, but only students whose parents have signed a consent form will receive a shot.He says, while mass vaccinations for the public might be needed, he feels a lot of the requests for shots will be able to be handled by the existing healthcare system. The first shipment of the swine flu vaccine is expected to be around 45 million doses, and Greene County expects to receive around 25 thousand doses in the initial shipment. Right now, those expected to receive the vaccine first are pregnant women, caregivers of children under 6 months, those 6 months to 25 years of age and healthcare workers who have direct contact with patients. Gipson says the vaccine will continue to be produced and shipped until demand lessons.Because there’s little to no immunity to the swine flu, health officials are expecting to see twice to even three times the number of cases typically seen during a flu season...

"Trying to predict flu seasons is tricky work. This is my 16th in Greene County, and everyone's different, and trying to predict them is next to impossible."

He says you plan for the worst but hope for the best. But he says he feels they’ll be prepared should the flu hit hard this season. At 4:30 tomorrow, find out what Springfield Public Schools and local hospitals are doing to prepare for a potential large number of swine flu cases this flu season. This program is on the web at ksmu.org.